“A Strategy for Israel in the 1980s” (1982)

 “A Strategy for Israel in the 1980s” (1982), a geopolitical essay by Oded Yinon, an Israeli journalist and former Foreign Ministry official. This document was published in the Hebrew-language journal Kivunim (“Directions”) and outlines a vision for securing Israel’s dominance by reshaping the Middle East through the fragmentation of Arab states along ethnic and sectarian lines.

1. Core Thesis

Yinon argues that Israel’s long-term security depends on:

  • Dismantling powerful Arab states (Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia).

  • Promoting the breakup of these states into smaller, weaker ethnic/sectarian entities (e.g., a Maronite Christian Lebanon, a Kurdish state, a Shia-dominated Iraq).

  • Ensuring Israel remains the sole regional superpower by preventing any unified Arab threat.

2. Key Facts & Assumptions

Yinon’s argument is based on the following premises:

A. The Arab World is Artificially Constructed

  • Fact: Post-Ottoman borders (Sykes-Picot) created unstable multiethnic states (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon).

  • Implication: These states are prone to internal conflict, which Israel can exploit.

B. Sunni Arab Dominance is the Main Threat

  • Fact: Pan-Arab nationalism (Nasserism, Ba’athism) sought to unite Arabs against Israel.

  • Implication: Breaking Arab unity requires encouraging sectarian (Shia vs. Sunni) and ethnic (Kurd vs. Arab) divisions.

C. Israel Must Prevent a United Arab Front

  • Fact: The 1967 and 1973 wars showed that a coordinated Arab attack could threaten Israel.

  • Implication: A divided Arab world means no single adversary can challenge Israel militarily.

3. Yinon’s Syllogism (Logical Structure)

His reasoning follows this structure:

  1. Premise 1: Arab states are internally weak due to ethnic/sectarian divisions.

  2. Premise 2: A united Arab world poses an existential threat to Israel.

  3. Conclusion: Therefore, Israel should encourage the breakup of Arab states to ensure its survival.

 

Yinon’s Syllogism Regarding Iran

Premise 1: Iran is a multiethnic and multireligious state, with significant non-Persian populations (Azeris, Kurds, Arabs, Baluch, Turkmen) and sectarian divides (Sunni vs. Shia).

Premise 2: These ethnic and sectarian groups have historical grievances and potential separatist tendencies that can be exploited.

Conclusion: Therefore, weakening Iran through internal fragmentation—by supporting ethnic separatism and fueling sectarian tension—would serve Israel’s strategic interest by neutralizing a hostile, unified regional power.

Yinon saw Iran’s diversity not as cultural richness, but as a structural vulnerability that could be leveraged geopolitically.

 

Paragraph on sectarian divisions including Iran

“This world with its ethnic minorities, its factions and internal crises, which is astonishingly self-destructive, as we can see in Lebanon, in non‑Arab Iran and now also in Syria, is unable to deal successfully with its fundamental problems…” (Yinon 1982, 4)¹
Citation: (Yinon 1982, 4)

Paragraph on demographic composition of Iran

“Alongside the Arabs, split as they are, the other Moslem states share a similar predicament. Half of Iran’s population is comprised of a Persian‑speaking group and the other half of an ethnically Turkish group…” (Yinon 1982, 5)
Citation: (Yinon 1982, 5)

Paragraph on Iranian–Iraqi confrontation

“It is possible that the present Iranian‑Iraqi confrontation will deepen this polarization.” (Yinon 1982, 6)
Citation: (Yinon 1982, 6)

Paragraph predicting impact of Iran–Iraq war

“An Iraqi‑Iranian war will tear Iraq apart and cause its downfall at home even before it is able to organize a struggle on a wide front against us.” (Yinon 1982, 7)
Citation: (Yinon 1982, 7)

Paragraph referencing Khomeini’s rise

“The seeds of inner conflict and civil war are apparent today already, especially after the rise of Khomeini to power in Iran, a leader whom the Shi’ites in Iraq view as their natural leader.” (Yinon 1982, 8)
Citation: (Yinon 1982, 8)

📚 Bibliographic Reference
Yinon, Oded. 1982. The Zionist Plan for the Middle East. Translated and edited by Israel Shahak. Kivunim 14 (February). Jerusalem: World Zionist Organization.

 

 

4. Key Arguments & Strategies

A. Iraq Must Be Dismantled

  • Argument: Iraq is a “threat” because of its oil wealth, military power, and potential Arab leadership.

  • Proposal:

    • Support Kurdish separatism to weaken Baghdad.

    • Encourage Shia-Sunni conflict (Iraq’s Shia majority vs. Sunni elite).

    • Result: A fractured Iraq cannot threaten Israel.

B. Syria Should Be Broken Up

  • Argument: Syria’s Alawite regime (Hafez al-Assad) rules over a Sunni majority.

  • Proposal:

    • Fuel Sunni-Alawite tensions (later seen in the 2011 Syrian Civil War).

    • Promote Lebanon’s separation from Syrian influence.

C. Egypt Must Be Contained

  • Argument: Egypt is the most populous Arab state and once led anti-Israel coalitions.

  • Proposal:

    • Keep Egypt economically dependent on the U.S. (via Camp David Accords).

    • Encourage Coptic Christian-Muslim tensions to destabilize Cairo.

D. Lebanon’s Destruction as a Model

  • Argument: Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war proved that sectarian divisions can paralyze a state.

  • Proposal:

    • Support Maronite Christian separatism (as Israel did in the 1982 Lebanon War).

    • Ensure Lebanon remains too weak to host Palestinian resistance.

E. Saudi Arabia’s Vulnerability

  • Argument: The Saudi monarchy relies on oil wealth and U.S. protection.

  • Proposal:

    • Exploit Shia unrest in the Eastern Province.

    • Encourage tribal rivalries to destabilize the royal family.

5. Yinon’s Reasoning Flaws & Criticisms

  1. Overestimating Israel’s Ability to Control Chaos:

    • The 2003 Iraq War showed that fragmentation can lead to unintended consequences (e.g., ISIS).

  2. Ethnic Divisions Aren’t Always Exploitable:

    • Some groups (e.g., Iraqi Shia) may unite against foreign interference.

  3. Ignores Palestinian Nationalism:

    • The plan focuses on Arab states but doesn’t resolve the Palestinian issue, which remains a core conflict.

6. Legacy & Influence

  • Neoconservative Adoption:

    • Yinon’s ideas were later echoed by U.S. strategists (e.g., PNAC’s “Clean Break” memo, 1996) advocating regime change in Iraq.

  • Post-2003 Iraq War:

    • The U.S. invasion partially fulfilled Yinon’s vision by dismantling Saddam’s Iraq.

  • Arab Spring & Syrian Civil War:

    • The breakup of Syria along sectarian lines aligns with Yinon’s predictions.

Key Quotes from the Document (Paraphrased)

  • “Iraq is the biggest threat to Israel and must be divided into three states: Kurdish, Sunni, and Shia.”

  • “Lebanon’s total dissolution into five provinces serves as a precedent for the entire Arab world.”

  • “Egypt should be broken down into a territorial minority for the Copts and a loose Sunni state.”

https://archive.org/details/the-zionist-plan-for-the-middle-east-by-oded-yinon-israel-shahak-yinon-oded-shah
https://dn720006.ca.archive.org/0/items/yinon-plan/Yinon_Plan.pdf#:~:text=predicament,15%20million%20Shi%27ites%20who%20endanger

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