The Fed balance sheet is at $6.4 trillion or roughly 30% of GDP

(Bloomberg) — Central-bank balance sheets are expanding to record levels amid their latest buying spree, raising questions about how big they can get and whether those assets can ever be sold back to markets.

Policy makers didn’t have much luck paring down much smaller portfolios in the decade since the financial crisis. And now they have to bankroll a coronavirus economy that’s putting government budgets under unprecedented strain and threatening to drive companies everywhere out of business.

“The amounts being purchased are enormous, and it just tells you how much support is needed when the economy is closed down,” said Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank’s chief economist. “Just have a look at how long it took to unwind from the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. Now we are adding at a pace that is multiples faster.”

Central banks in Group of Seven countries purchased $1.4 trillion of financial assets in March, nearly five times as much as the previous monthly record set in April 2009, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England will expand their balance sheets by a cumulative $6.8 trillion when all is said and done.

The Fed has led the charge, offering to buy unlimited amounts of U.S. government bonds and mortgage-backed securities — and lend trillions more to corporations and municipalities through temporary purchases of their obligations — as global investors seek to unwind years worth of accumulated leverage in their own portfolios. In the week through April 15, it expanded its balance sheet at a pace of about $41 billion per day.

Central bankers in the euro area, Japan and the U.K. — old hands at so-called quantitative easing programs by now — have all ramped up buying, while those in Canada, New Zealand and Australia have embarked on large-scale purchases for the first time, joining Sweden among smaller economies to do so. There’s even talk that some emerging markets like Thailand may get in on the game.

“They’re all moving in the same direction,” said Aditya Bhave, an economist at Bank of America in New York. “At some point, unconventional easing stops being unconventional.”

In the coming months, as market liquidity is replenished, monetary authorities will shift their focus to the long haul of keeping borrowing costs low to facilitate a recovery and make it easier for governments to fund their budgets. While that may involve a slower pace of asset purchases, it certainly won’t mark a reversal, so the great balance-sheet expansion will roll ever onward.

Japanese Precedent

When it comes to the question of whether there’s any effective limit on how much central banks can buy, Japan’s experience may offer a guide.

The QE pioneer first embarked on a program of large-scale asset purchases in 2001 after bubbles in its stock and property markets burst, plunging the economy into a deflationary spiral. It has made a couple of attempts to unwind in the intervening years, only to find itself repeatedly dragged back into more purchases.

Today, the BOJ’s balance sheet is 604 trillion yen ($5.6 trillion) –more than the nation’s annual economic output. The Fed, at $6.4 trillion or roughly 30% of GDP, seems modest by comparison while the ECB figure is around 39%.

Where Japan’s central bank is running into problems is market functioning. Its huge bond holdings, 43% of the total, impose limits on liquidity. The BOJ had to start selling and lending bonds recently due to the scarcity of supply, when investors demanded more of them as safe investments or as collateral to obtain U.S. dollars.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-buying-41-billion-assets-052412583.html

The BOJ also owns about 5% of the nation’s corporate bonds and around 5% of the stock market through exchange-traded funds. And while the Fed has said it will also buy ETFs under its new temporary corporate credit purchase programs — including some junk debt — it may not be inclined to buy much if volatility in credit markets remains relatively low.

“For now, both the Fed and the ECB will continue to ramp up their buying,” said Yoshinori Shigemi, a global market strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management Japan Ltd. in Tokyo, but they won’t get anywhere near Japan’s levels. “If the market eventually starts calming down, they don’t need to force themselves to buy more.”

 

QE Critics

When QE swept up much of the developed world after the financial crisis, critics warned of unintended consequences, like runaway inflation and moral hazard for financial institutions and even governments that had fewer reasons to balance the books. The first of those never materialized and the second is the last thing on the minds of policy makers grappling with one of the darkest economic outlooks since the Great Depression.

Richard Clarida, the Fed’s vice chair, said in a recent Bloomberg TV interview that if anything, the central bank is trying to guard against disinflation as demand plummets, adding that moral hazard concerns “aren’t relevant considerations” because the pandemic “is an entirely exogenous event.”

The buying so far has helped stabilize financial markets, shining a spotlight on another longstanding criticism levied against central bankers: their actions ensure swift relief for investors, while working people dependent on labor income have to wait for the help to trickle down.

Providing companies with a stable source of funding helps many of them stay afloat, but it doesn’t ensure that those companies retain employees. Indeed, market volatility has receded in recent weeks even as unemployment soars.

Lasting Legacy

Once the dust settles, the balance sheets of monetary authorities will probably remain pumped up and benchmark interest rates will stay low for the foreseeable future. And if history is a guide, they’ll need to tread lightly as they slow purchases, let alone reverse them.

In 2013, U.S. Treasury yields shot higher in the ‘Taper Tantrum’ as the Fed contemplated stepping down the pace of purchases. It was only able to begin unwinding its balance sheet in 2017 — nine years after it initially began expanding it. But it didn’t get very far and even the small, gradual reduction it achieved was met with occasional bouts of market turmoil.

This time around, with more and more assets on more and more monetary authorities’ ledgers, the prospect of any rapid sell-down seems distant.

“We just have to get used to a new world where central bank balance sheets are so much bigger,” Deutsche Bank’s Slok said.

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©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

21 April 2020

Israeli Sponsored Rebel Groups in Syria

Translated videos of One of the 12 Israeli Sponsored Al Qaeda/ISIS/FSA rebel Groups in Syria ” Fursan al-Joulan” Brigades https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZu8J_KJ8cY

Times of Israel : IDF chief finally acknowledges that Israel supplied weapons to Syrian rebels (Sunni terror groups) https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-chief-acknowledges-long-claimed-weapons-supply-to-syrian-rebels/

Foreign Policy : Inside Israel’s Secret Program to Back Syrian Rebels ( ISIS, al Qaeda , al Nusra , Jaysh alIslam etc) https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/06/in-secret-program-israel-armed-and-funded-rebel-groups-in-southern-syria/

RT: After years of speculation, IDF chief admits Israel supplied Syrian rebels with weapons https://www.rt.com/news/448818-israel-arming-rebels-admission/

Israel National News : Israel supplying weapons to Syrian rebels, says ex-IDF chief https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/257692

Haaretz : Israel Just admitted arming anti Assad Syrian Rebels . https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-just-admitted-arming-anti-assad-syrian-rebels-big-mistake-1.6894850

Global research : Israel’s Top Commander Finally Spills Secrets of “Invisible War” in Syria https://www.globalresearch.ca/israels-top-commander-finally-spills-secrets-of-invisible-war-in-syria/5665721

Israel Defence official website : Israel Gives Secret Aid to Syrian Rebels https://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/node/30036

Terrorists Who Go Around, Come Around

Turkey is deporting terrorists to their country of origin. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Tuesday, “Some countries have started panicking after we began the repatriation process of foreign Daesh terrorists. Turkey has been worrying about this issue for years, let others worry now,” He added, “The American Daesh terrorists stranded in the buffer zone on Greece border is none of Turkey’s concern, deportations will continue regardless.” The Turkish Interior Minister, Süleyman Soylu, said last week that Ankara would start sending ISIS terrorists back to their country of origin even if they had been stripped of their citizenship, adding that Turkey was not a ‘hotel’ … Continue reading

The Province Mai-Ndombe will be one of the first regions of Sub-Saharan Africa to use this disruptive technology.

ADELAIDE, South Australia, Oct. 11, 2019 /PRNewswire/ — This week in the Province of MAI-NDOMBE, Australian Nanotech, a subsidiary of Canadian road technology company NTI Nanotech Corp., signed a $1.6 billion contract to construct 3,200 kilometres of roads using their proprietary green nanotechnology. The emerging technology has been deployed around the world in several countries for the past ten years and has proven to be cost effective, environmentally beneficial and a better quality than typical alternatives. The Province Mai-Ndombe will be one of the first regions of Sub-Saharan Africa to use this disruptive technology. “We are very excited to proceed … Continue reading

Trump nominates former Aerospace Corporation chair to head US Air Force

Barbara Barrett, 68, served as the U.S. ambassador to Finland from 2008 to 2009 under the George W. Bush administration. She also chaired an aeronautics research and development center, The Aerospace Corporation, until 2017. A former lawyer and test pilot, Barrett is also a board member at the Rand Corporation, a think tank that provides research and analysis to the U.S. armed forces. She and her husband Craig, the former CEO of American technology giant Intel, are major Republican donors. Barrett ran for governor of Arizona on the Republican Party ticket in 1994, the first woman to do so, but … Continue reading

People of united states need help

People of united states need help or their elite will lead them to war and destruction. The people of united states need friends that relieve them from fear, they are capable of spending to bankruptcy. Russia, China, and Iran must read the history of the first half of 20th century and notice that a bankrupt super power is not good for anyone.   FY DoD Base Budget DoD OCO Support Base Support OCO Total Spending 2003 $364.9 $72.5     $437.4 2004 $376.5 $91.1     $467.6 2005 $400.1 $78.8     $478.9 2006 $410.6 $124.0 $109.7   $644.3 2007 … Continue reading

20 percent of the Iraqi economy

https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2019/04/291144.htm The second piece of that has been to identify the other great threat, which is the Islamic Republic of Iran, which remains the largest sponsor of terror, who has supported Lebanese Hizballah, has supported Hizballah’s actions in Syria. The Shia militias under the stranglehold of the ayatollah who are working in Iraq aren’t working for the best interests of the Iraqi people. You see what’s happened in Yemen – an enormous – an enormous humanitarian crisis. The UN did good work in Stockholm to reach an agreement, but the Iranians won’t let the Houthis actually implement the Stockholm agreement. … Continue reading

How the merchants of death manage to supply the purveyors of death

Robert Fisk: I bet they’re not. For I don’t think either Nato or the EU has the slightest interest in chasing the provenance of weapons in the hands of Islamist fighters in Syria or anywhere else in the Middle East – certainly not in the case of Damascus, where the west has just given up its attempt to unseat Assad. Indeed, in a political landscape where “regime change” has become a moral, ethical objective, there can be no moral, ethical investigation of just how the merchants of death (the makers) manage to supply the purveyors of death (the killers) with … Continue reading

List of countries by government budget Revenues Expenditures Surplus or deficit

Rank Country Revenues Expenditures Surplus (or deficit) Surplus percentage Year –  World 20310000 22790000 -2480000 -10.90% – 1  United States 3363000 3893000 -530000 -13.60% 2016 est.[1] 2  China 2465000 2897000 -432000 -14.90% 2016 est.[1] 3  Japan 1696000 1931000 -235000 -12.20% 2016 est.[1] 4  Germany 1507000 1484000 23000 1.50% 2016 est.[1] 5  France 1288000 1369000 -81000 -5.90% 2016 est.[1] 6  United Kingdom 996300 1097000 -100700 -9.20% 2016 est.[1] 7  Italy 842500 889800 -47300 -5.30% 2016 est.[1] 8  Brazil 632000 677200 -45200 -6.70% 2016 est.[1] 9  Canada 594700 632400 -37700 -6.00% 2016 est.[1] 10  Spain 461300 512900 -51600 -10.10% 2016 est.[1] 11 … Continue reading

List of countries External debt (or foreign debt) which is the total debt a country owes to foreign creditors

Rank Country/Region External debt Date Per capita % of GDP     US dollars   US dollars   1  United States 18,286,510,000,000.00 31 March 2017[1] 56000 97 2  United Kingdom 7,499,400,000,000.00 31 March 2017[2] 119000 314 3  France 5,250,608,000,000.00 31 March 2017[3] 75800 213 4  Germany 5,084,360,000,000.00 31 March 2017[4] 61700 148 5  Netherlands 4,124,640,000,000.00 31 March 2017[5] 234000 533 6  Luxembourg 3,900,665,000,000.00 31 March 2017[6] 6733000 6731 7  Japan 3,408,980,000,000.00 31 March 2017[7] 26400 74 8  Italy 2,285,740,000,000.00 31 March 2017[8] 37900 126 9  Ireland 2,203,402,000,000.00 31 March 2017[9] 471000 780 10  Spain 2,036,560,000,000.00 31 March 2017[10] 44100 167 … Continue reading

Why Are We Attacking the Syrians Who Are Fighting ISIS?

  Written by Ron Paul Monday June 12, 2017 Just when you thought our Syria policy could not get any worse, last week it did. The US military twice attacked Syrian government forces from a military base it illegally occupies inside Syria. According to the Pentagon, the attacks on Syrian government-backed forces were “defensive” because the Syrian fighters were approaching a US self-declared “de-confliction” zone inside Syria. The Syrian forces were pursuing ISIS in the area, but the US attacked anyway. The US is training yet another rebel group fighting from that base, located near the border of Iraq at … Continue reading

Nicholas Wilson HSBC Saudi Arabia

Nicholas Wilson: “One of the first things that happened was: her husband’s company – Global Capital – did a deal with HSBC in Hong Kong (business deal) and then she was in Saudi Arabia , in April of this year, selling arms for BAE Systems after doing another deal for HSBC – Saudi Arabia are doing a share sale of their national oil reserves – HSBC have got the job because Teresa May went there. Saudi Arabia are the country responsible for I.S. and they support I.S. . We supply arms to Saudi Arabia through …. Soft on crime , … Continue reading

Spy Cables

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spy_Cables http://www.aljazeera.com/investigations/documents.html Specific revelations The Israeli intelligence agency Mossad contradicted the Prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu’s assertion that Iran was a year away from making a nuclear weapon. A report written by Mossad said that Iran was “not performing the activity necessary to produce weapons”. The United States’s Central Intelligence Agency tried to contact Hamas even though they were banned from doing so. The leader of the environmental group Greenpeace was targeted by South Korean intelligence agencies. The President of the United States, Barack Obama “threatened” the Palestinian president to withdraw Palestine’s attempt for recognition at the United Nations. … Continue reading

    ommission Notice: GUIDELINES on the eligibility of Israeli entities and their activities in the territories occupied by Israel since June 1967 for grants, prizes and financial instruments funded by the EU from 2014 onwards. Section A. GENERAL ISSUES 1. These guidelines set out the conditions under which the Commission will implement key requirements for the award of EU support to Israeli entities or to their activities in the territories occupied by Israel since June 1967. Their aim is to ensure the respect of EU positions and commitments in conformity with international law on the non-recognition by the EU of Israel’s sovereignty over the … Continue reading

A pope to remember

URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j01E79451ew Pope Francis compares refugee camps to concentration camps – Daily Mail ROME (CNS) — The Christian church today needs believers who witness each day to the power of God’s love, but it also needs the heroic witness of those who stand up to hatred even when it means giving up their lives, Pope Francis said. At Rome’s Basilica of St. Bartholomew, a shrine to modern martyrs, Pope Francis presided over an evening prayer service April 22, honoring Christians killed under Nazism, communism, dictatorships and terrorism. “These teach us that with the force of love and with meekness one … Continue reading

Why do we still have Nuclear Weapons

Pope sends message to UN conference on nuclear weapons Pope Francis (file photo). On Tuesday, Pope Francis sent a message to the “United Nations Conference to Negotiate a Legally Binding Instrument to Prohibit Nuclear Weapons, Leading Towards their Total Elimination.” – RV 28/03/2017 11:15   (Vatican Radio) Pope Francis has sent a message to the “United Nations Conference to Negotiate a Legally Binding Instrument to Prohibit Nuclear Weapons, Leading Towards their Total Elimination,” the first part of which is taking place in New York from 27-31 March. The message was read by Msgr Antoine Camilleri, Under-Secretary for Relations with States, … Continue reading

President Heydar Aliyev appointed his wife as first vice president

Aliyev’s critics say the September referendum – which also extended the presidential term from five to seven years — effectively guaranteed a dynastic rule. In 2003, Aliyev succeeded his father, who had ruled Azerbaijan first as head of the Communist Party and then as a post-Soviet president for the greater part of three decades. Aliyev has firmly allied the energy-rich Shiite Muslim nation with the West, helping secure his country’s energy and security interests and offset Russia’s influence in the strategic Caspian Sea region. http://nypost.com/2017/02/21/azerbaijans-leader-names-his-wife-as-first-vice-president/ … Continue reading

US Peace Council Representatives on Syria

Speakers: H.E. Bashar Ja’afari, Permanent Representative of the Syrian Arab Republic Alfred Marder, President of the US Peace Council Mary Compton, Member of the Executive Board of the US Peace Council Henry Lowendorf, Member of the Executive Board of the US Peace Council, Head of the Syria Delegation Joe Jamison, Member of the Executive Board of the US Peace Council, Member of the Syria Delegation Madelyn Hoffman, Executive Director of New Jersey Peace Action, Member of the Syria Delegation Donna Nassor, Professor and Lawyer also part of US Peace Council   … Continue reading

The fate of the coup

“Some people give us advice. They say they are worried. Mind your own business! Look at your own actions, “ Not one senior Western politicians have visited since the failed military coup two weeks ago, Turkey, to express his sympathy. And then they say ‘Erdogan has become so angry,’ “These countries and leaders who do not worry about the Turkish democracy, the lives of our people and their future, while they are concerned about the fate of the coup, can not be our friends. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 2016-07-30 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/29/turkey-drops-cases-of-insult-against-president-in-coup-aftermath https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/21-journalists-appear-in-court-in-turkey/2016/07/29/c044cd2c-5569-11e6-b652-315ae5d4d4dd_story.html … Continue reading

Pope Francis: The world is at war, a piecemeal war, for natural resources and domination of peoples.

“The word that is being repeated often is insecurity, but the real word is war,” “Let’s recognize it. The world is in a state of war in bits and pieces,”

“The world is at war, a piecemeal war. There was the 1914 war with its methods, then the 1939-45 one and now this one.”

“It is not very organic (structured) but it is organized, it is war.  This saintly priest, killed right at the moment when he was offering prayers for peace.  He is one (victim), but how many Christians, how many innocent people, how many children… Let’s think about Nigeria, for example.  We say, well, that is Africa!  It’s war.  We’re not frightened to tell the truth, the world is at war because it has lost (sight) of peace.”

“to clarify”
“Not a war of religion.
There is a war of interests.
There is a war for money.
There is a war for natural resources.
There is a war for domination of peoples.
This is the war,”
“All religions want peace. Others want war. Do you understand?”

 

URL:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79ymovUDJwk

 

http://en.radiovaticana.va/news/2016/07/27/pope_world_is_at_war_but_it%E2%80%99s_not_a_war_of_religions/1247178

Pope Francis on industry of death

“This is serious. Some powerful people make their living with the production of arms and sell them to one country for them to use against another country … It’s the industry of death, the greed that harms us all, the desire to have more money.”

“The economic system orbits around money and not men, women. …

“So war is waged in order to defend money.

This is why some people don’t want peace: They make more money from war, although wars make money but lose lives, health, education.”

“A war can be justified, so to speak, with many, many reasons, but when all the world is as it is today, at war — piecemeal though that war may be — a little here, a little there and everywhere, there is no justification. And God weeps. Jesus weeps.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/is-the-government-providing-cover-for-our-arms-sales-to-saudi-arabia-a6850456.html

 

Pope Francis: it is our duty to stop the arms trade

“Being at the service of dialogue and peace also means being truly determined to minimize and, in the long term, to end the many armed conflicts throughout our world. Here we have to ask ourselves: Why are deadly weapons being sold to those who plan to inflict untold suffering on individuals and society? Sadly, the answer, as we all know, is simply for money: money that is drenched in blood, often innocent blood. In the face of this shameful and culpable silence, it is our duty to confront the problem and to stop the arms trade. Thursday, 24 September 2015 … Continue reading

How Labour MPs voted on Trident

The final House of Commons vote was 472 votes to 117 in favour of renewing the nuclear programme. Here is how the Labour MPs divided:Aye Heidi Alexander Rushanara AliRosena Allin-KhanIan AustinAdrian BaileyKevin BarronMargaret BeckettHilary BennLuciana BergerClive BettsTom BlenkinsopBen BradshawKevin BrennanChris BryantAndy BurnhamLiam ByrneAlan CampbellJenny ChapmanVernon CoakerAnn CoffeyJulie CooperRosie CooperYvette CooperNeil CoyleMary CreaghStella CreasyJim CunninghamNic DakinSimon DanczukWayne DavidGeraint DaviesGloria de PieroStephen DoughtyJim DowdPeter DowdJack DromeyMichael DugherAngela EagleMaria EagleJulie ElliottLouise EllmanBill Esterson Paul FarrellyFrank FieldJim FitzpatrickRobert FlelloColleen FletcherCaroline FlintYvonne FovargueGill FurnissMike Gapes Pat GlassMary GlindonKate GreenAndrew GwynneDavid HansonHarriet HarmanHelen HayesSue HaymanJohn HealeyStephen HepburnMeg HillierMargaret HodgeGeorge HowarthTristram HuntDan JarvisAlan JohnsonDiana JohnsonGerald JonesGraham JonesHelen … Continue reading

Yemen

During Yemen’s 2011 revolution General Hadi was “expected to form a national unity government and also call for early presidential elections within 90 days”. He was the sole candidate in the presidential election that was held on 21 February 2012. (Yemen Ecology, Nature Protection Laws and Regulations Handbook Volume 1) During the 33 years of the rule of first president of Yemen, Field Marshal General Ali Abdullah Saleh (who was a long-time ally of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, supported Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, and fled the country after revolution), and General Hadi’s rule, US had a base in Yemen from which … Continue reading

News that Matters

On the Necessity of calculus education for all Journalists Thousands Tens of thousands Hundred thousand Hundreds of thousands are very different   ==================================================== I cannot  believe it is true Ukrainian PM Yatsenyuk: “USSR attacked and invaded Germany, I remember it clearly” http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=203_1420750605#LvZI0lbZxqFWiscK.99 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-i–EAfBPw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lng1FFJesYU —————————————————————————- Any State Department: US Has no Ban on Oil Sales from Any Part of Iraq. http://www.c-span.org/video/?c4507327/   1 May 2013 smile emoticon !!! http://world.time.com/…/can-syrias-rebellion-win-the-war-b…/ Syria’s Opposition Hopes to Win the War by Selling Oil | TIME.com Given the many resolutions on Syria that have hit a brick wall at the U.N. Security Council, and the … Continue reading

2014 Libyan Coup by Haftar

General Khalifa Belqasim Haftar https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/africa/13171-libyas-haftar-and-jibril-visit-egypt-for-talks-with-intelligence-officials http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/07/fighters-overrun-libyan-special-forces-base-2014729141712806370.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalifa_Haftar http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2014_Libyan_conflict&oldid=619725120 … Continue reading

India, food security and WTO

While India has been demanding a review of the food subsidy limit for several years, the developed countries have refused to play ball. In fact, in the run-up to the Bali ministerial last December, the rich countries had even refused to acknowledge the food security proposal submitted by G-33, which includes countries such as Indonesia, Brazil and China. It was only after a link with trade facilitation was established that food security even came on the agenda for the ministerial. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-stays-firm-on-food-subsidy-blocks-WTO-deal/articleshow/39439868.cms … Continue reading